Franz-Kremer Stadion · Analysis updated 16:32 UTC
FC Koln W vs Werder Bremen W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for FC Koln W and 1.43 for Werder Bremen W, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives FC Koln W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Koln W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Werder Bremen W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Koln W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for FC Koln W and 1.43 for Werder Bremen W, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
FC Koln W
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Carl Zeiss Jena W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen W · 3-0 (W)
Werder Bremen W
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Frauen Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | FC Koln W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Union Berlin W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Stuttgart W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 11 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV W | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Nürnberg W | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -21 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.