Ozon Arena · Analysis updated 15:44 UTC
FC Krasnodar vs Dynamo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.26 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Dynamo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Krasnodar home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Dynamo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dynamo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 27% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.26 for Dynamo, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–08.5%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
FC Krasnodar
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 1-1 (D)
Dynamo
- 2026-10-18T13:15:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moscow · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rubin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.