Ozon Arena · Referee M. Zaika · Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
FC Krasnodar vs Fakel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.70 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives FC Krasnodar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Krasnodar win
69.9% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Krasnodar home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Fakel away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Krasnodar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.70 for Fakel, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.4%
- 1–012.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.4%
- 1–18.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 4.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.36 | 67.5% | 69.2% | 1.45 | +1.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.70 | 54.4% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.38 | 69.3% | 69.9% | 1.43 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.19 | 80.5% | 81.1% | 1.23 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.04 | 46.7% | 47.0% | 2.13 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 88.7% | 88.8% | 1.13 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 8.40 | 11.4% | 11.2% | 8.93 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.79 | 53.3% | 53.0% | 1.89 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.95 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.12 | 30.7% | 30.1% | 3.32 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.03 | 45.6% | 44.2% | 2.26 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.82 | 32.5% | 30.8% | 3.25 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Krasnodar
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 1-1 (D)
Fakel
- 2026-10-10T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Vitebsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moscow · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baltika · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Krasnodar win, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.