FC Krasnodar vs FC Rostov Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.92 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives FC Krasnodar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Krasnodar win

61.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Krasnodar home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Krasnodar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.92 for FC Rostov, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

FC Krasnodar win61%

Draw21%

FC Rostov win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–011.0%
2–010.7%
1–110.2%
2–19.9%
3–07.0%

Recent form

FC Krasnodar

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-17T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 1-1 (D)

FC Rostov

2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Krasnodar · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moscow · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dynamo	11	8	1	2	9	25
2	Zenit	11	8	0	3	12	24
3	Spartak Moscow	11	7	2	2	13	23
4	CSKA Moscow	11	6	4	1	7	22
5	FC Krasnodar	11	6	4	1	6	22
6	FC Orenburg	11	2	7	2	1	13
7	Baltika	11	3	4	4	2	13
8	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	4	1	6	-5	13
9	FC Rostov	11	3	3	5	-6	12
10	Rubin	11	2	6	3	-4	12
11	Krylia Sovetov	11	2	6	3	-2	12
12	Lokomotiv	11	2	5	4	2	11
13	Akhmat	11	2	5	4	-1	11
14	Akron	11	1	6	4	-8	9
15	Fakel	11	1	3	7	-11	6
16	Rodina Moskva	11	1	3	7	-15	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Krasnodar win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.