A. Le Coq Arena · Referee E. Reinumagi · Analysis updated 20:25 UTC
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for FC Levadia Tallinn and 1.10 for Kuressaare, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives FC Levadia Tallinn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Levadia Tallinn win
65.6% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Levadia Tallinn home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kuressaare away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
FC Levadia Tallinn
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Keila · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 1-1 (D)
Kuressaare
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Saku Sporting · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · FC Levadia Tallinn 4-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-05-02T11:30:00.000Z · FC Levadia Tallinn 2-1 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-03-08T10:30:00.000Z · FC Levadia Tallinn 2-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · FC Levadia Tallinn 3-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · FC Levadia Tallinn 2-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-06-14T14:00:00.000Z · FC Levadia Tallinn 2-1 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-04-08T15:00:00.000Z · FC Levadia Tallinn 2-1 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · FC Levadia Tallinn 1-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-07-21T14:00:00.000Z · FC Levadia Tallinn 0-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-06-01T16:00:00.000Z · FC Levadia Tallinn 2-0 Kuressaare (Meistriliiga)
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 81 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 33 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 58 |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | -9 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 33 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -17 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | -24 | 31 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | -45 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Levadia Tallinn win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.