Red Bull Arena · Analysis updated 09:24 UTC
FC Liefering vs Austria Salzburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for FC Liefering and 1.94 for Austria Salzburg, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives Austria Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Liefering home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austria Salzburg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austria Salzburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 39% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for FC Liefering and 1.94 for Austria Salzburg, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.9%
Recent form
FC Liefering
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mainz 05 U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs FC BW Linz · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 0-1 (L)
Austria Salzburg
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Voitsberg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SKN ST. Polten · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Admira Wacker | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | SKU Amstetten | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Austria Salzburg | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Wacker Innsbruck | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Floridsdorfer AC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Voitsberg | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | SKN ST. Polten | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | SV Kapfenberg | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Rapid Wien II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.