Sportpark Ter Specke · Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
FC Lisse vs ADO '20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for FC Lisse and 1.22 for ADO '20, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives FC Lisse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Lisse win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Lisse home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ADO '20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lisse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for FC Lisse and 1.22 for ADO '20, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
FC Lisse
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs EVV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zwaluwen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TOGB · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vvsb · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Genemuiden · 1-2 (L)
ADO '20
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VV Scherpenzeel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs SVZW · 6-4 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Staphorst · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Eemdijk · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tweede Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | Kozakken Boys | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | De Treffers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Ijsselmeervogels | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | GVVV Veenendaal | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | HHC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Barendrecht | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | AFC Amsterdam | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | RKAV Volendam | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Katwijk | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 13 | Almere City II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 10 |
| 14 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Hoek | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Kloetinge | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Koninklijke HFC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Lisse win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.