FC Lisse vs Roosendaal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for FC Lisse and 1.19 for Roosendaal, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives FC Lisse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Lisse win

60.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.21 – 1.19

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Lisse home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Roosendaal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lisse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for FC Lisse and 1.19 for Roosendaal, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Lisse win61%

Draw20%

Roosendaal win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–18.8%
2–08.1%
1–07.3%
3–17.2%

Recent form

FC Lisse

2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gemert · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs EVV · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zwaluwen · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TOGB · 3-2 (W)

Roosendaal

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EVV · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Zwaluwen · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-03T13:15:00.000Z · A vs TOGB · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vvsb · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Eemdijk · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Derde Divisie - Sunday table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kloetinge	34	22	7	5	25	73
2	FC Lisse	34	20	8	6	34	68
3	Vvsb	34	21	5	8	33	68
4	Rijnvogels	34	19	7	8	24	64
5	Gemert	34	17	10	7	25	61
6	Roosendaal	34	15	9	10	13	54
7	TOGB	34	15	8	11	3	53
8	Zwaluwen	34	15	6	13	13	51
9	Blauw Geel	34	14	6	14	2	48
10	Noordwijk	34	12	8	14	5	44
11	UDI '19	34	11	6	17	-17	39
12	UNA	34	10	8	16	-8	38
13	GOES	34	10	7	17	-18	37
14	Groene Ster	34	10	6	18	-19	36
15	SteDoCo	34	10	4	20	-34	34
16	SVV Scheveningen	34	9	5	20	-16	32
17	Meerssen	34	8	7	19	-23	31
18	ASWH	34	6	7	21	-42	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Lisse win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.