· Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
FC Lisse vs TOGB Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for FC Lisse and 1.10 for TOGB, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives FC Lisse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Lisse win
59.0% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Lisse home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
TOGB away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lisse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for FC Lisse and 1.10 for TOGB, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–09.0%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
FC Lisse
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gemert · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs EVV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zwaluwen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TOGB · 3-2 (W)
TOGB
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Noordwijk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Lisse · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Groene Ster · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Katwijk · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs UDI '19 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Lisse win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.