FC Lok Stendal vs Sparta Lichtenberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for FC Lok Stendal and 1.60 for Sparta Lichtenberg, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives FC Lok Stendal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Lok Stendal home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lok Stendal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 23% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for FC Lok Stendal and 1.60 for Sparta Lichtenberg, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

FC Lok Stendal win42%

Draw23%

Sparta Lichtenberg win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–18.6%
1–27.8%
2–26.9%
1–06.1%

Recent form

FC Lok Stendal

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Optik Rathenow · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Siedenbollentin · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lichtenberg · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock II · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Anker Wismar · 2-3 (L)

Sparta Lichtenberg

2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BAK '07 · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mecklenburg Schwerin · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Reinickendorfer Fuchse · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Krieschow · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mariendorf · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	9	6	1	2	6	19
2	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	9	5	2	2	4	17
3	BAK '07	9	4	4	1	3	16
4	Hertha Zehlendorf	9	5	0	4	8	15
5	Siedenbollentin	9	4	2	3	5	14
6	Lichtenberg	9	4	2	3	2	14
7	Hansa Rostock II	9	3	4	2	8	13
8	Optik Rathenow	9	4	1	4	3	13
9	Anker Wismar	9	4	1	4	-5	13
10	Tennis Borussia	9	3	3	3	0	12
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	9	2	4	3	-3	10
12	FC Lok Stendal	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Sparta Lichtenberg	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Union Klosterfelde	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Makkabi	9	2	2	5	-12	8
16	Neustrelitz	9	2	1	6	-6	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.