· Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
FC Luanda vs Sporting de Cabinda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for FC Luanda and 0.75 for Sporting de Cabinda, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives FC Luanda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Luanda win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting de Cabinda away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Luanda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 26% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for FC Luanda and 0.75 for Sporting de Cabinda, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 41%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.8%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–011.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
FC Luanda
- 2026-08-28T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Interclube · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo da Caála · 0-0 (D)
Sporting de Cabinda
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs São Salvador · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Agosto · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luanda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Desportivo Huíla · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Interclube | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Desportivo Huíla | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Recreativo do Libolo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | 1º de Maio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Sagrada Esperança | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | CD Lunda-Sul | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | São Salvador | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Luanda win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.