Thermoplan Arena · Referee Urs Schnyder, Switzerland · Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for FC Luzern and 1.70 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives FC Basel 1893 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Basel 1893 win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Luzern home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Basel 1893 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Basel 1893 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 19% / 24% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for FC Luzern and 1.70 for FC Basel 1893, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
FC Luzern
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshoppers · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Basel 1893 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 3-3 (D)
FC Basel 1893
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luzern · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Lugano · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | FC ST. Gallen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 6 | Servette FC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Basel 1893 win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.