FC Midtjylland vs Brondby Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Midtjylland and 1.23 for Brondby, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives FC Midtjylland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Midtjylland home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brondby away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

FC Midtjylland win45%

Draw25%

Brondby win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–09.7%
2–19.2%
0–17.6%
2–07.5%

Recent form

FC Midtjylland

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Odense · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Brondby · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sundby · 7-0 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 2-2 (D)

Brondby

2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vejle · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Midtjylland · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Randers FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Nordsjaelland · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 4-1 Brondby (Superliga)
2026-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 2-3 Brondby (Superliga)
2026-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 2-1 Brondby (Superliga)
2026-03-01T16:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 0-0 Brondby (Superliga)
2025-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 3-1 Brondby (Superliga)
2025-05-19T17:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 2-1 Brondby (Superliga)
2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 0-2 Brondby (Superliga)
2024-11-03T13:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 1-5 Brondby (Superliga)
2024-10-31T19:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 0-1 Brondby (DBU Pokalen)
2024-10-06T16:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 0-2 Brondby (Superliga)

Superliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Copenhagen	9	8	0	1	15	24
2	FC Midtjylland	9	5	4	0	8	19
3	Viborg	9	5	2	2	7	17
4	FC Nordsjaelland	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	Brondby	9	4	1	4	-3	13
6	AC Horsens	9	3	2	4	-1	11
7	Silkeborg	9	2	4	3	0	10
8	Randers FC	9	3	1	5	-3	10
9	Odense	9	2	3	4	-6	9
10	Lyngby	9	1	4	4	-6	7
11	Aarhus	9	0	5	4	-6	5
12	Sonderjyske	9	1	2	6	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.