MCH Arena · Referee Jacob Karlsen · Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for FC Midtjylland and 1.80 for FC Copenhagen, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives FC Copenhagen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Copenhagen win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Midtjylland home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Copenhagen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–17.1%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
FC Midtjylland
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Odense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Brondby · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sundby · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 2-2 (D)
FC Copenhagen
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Midtjylland · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brondby · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skovshoved · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Horsens · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 1-0 FC Copenhagen (DBU Pokalen)
- 2026-02-08T15:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 2-1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2025-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 1-1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2025-05-11T18:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 1-1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2025-04-17T16:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 4-2 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2025-02-23T17:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 0-1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2024-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 2-1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2024-05-16T18:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 2-1 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2024-04-14T16:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 2-2 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
- 2024-03-01T18:00:00.000Z · FC Midtjylland 2-0 FC Copenhagen (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Viborg | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Brondby | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Silkeborg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Randers FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | Odense | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Lyngby | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Aarhus | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Copenhagen win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.