MCH Arena · Analysis updated 12:57 UTC
FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for FC Midtjylland and 1.22 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives FC Midtjylland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Midtjylland win
62.0% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Midtjylland home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Truiden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Midtjylland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for FC Midtjylland and 1.22 for St. Truiden, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.2%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
FC Midtjylland
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Odense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Brondby · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sundby · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 2-2 (D)
St. Truiden
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KVC Westerlo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Midtjylland win, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.