Stadion Traktor · Analysis updated 20:00 UTC
FC Minsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for FC Minsk and 0.96 for FC Dnepr Mogilev, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives FC Minsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Minsk win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Dnepr Mogilev away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Minsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for FC Minsk and 0.96 for FC Dnepr Mogilev, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.3%
Recent form
FC Minsk
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftan · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Vitebsk · 0-1 (L)
FC Dnepr Mogilev
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Brest · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs ML Vitebsk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baranovichi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Zhodino · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 47 |
| 5 | Neman | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 33 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -16 | 28 |
| 12 | Belshina | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -18 | 24 |
| 13 | Arsenal | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 26 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -16 | 20 |
| 16 | Naftan | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -38 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Minsk win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.