FC Minsk Stadium · Analysis updated 17:34 UTC
FC Minsk vs Torpedo Zhodino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for FC Minsk and 1.32 for Torpedo Zhodino, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives FC Minsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torpedo Zhodino away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Minsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for FC Minsk and 1.32 for Torpedo Zhodino, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 69.6% | 71.4% | 1.40 | +1.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 73.1% | 74.2% | 1.35 | +1.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.08 | 44.2% | 45.2% | 2.21 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.66 | 35.0% | 35.7% | 2.80 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.92 | 48.7% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.43 | 38.3% | 38.5% | 2.60 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.51 | 62.0% | 61.5% | 1.63 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.82 | 51.3% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.0% | 64.3% | 1.56 | -0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.48 | 26.7% | 25.8% | 3.88 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 55.8% | 54.8% | 1.82 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.97 | 30.4% | 28.6% | 3.50 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Minsk
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftan · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Vitebsk · 0-1 (L)
Torpedo Zhodino
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs ML Vitebsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Minsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Moskva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vitebsk · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · FC Minsk 0-3 Torpedo Zhodino (Premier League)
- 2025-11-02T17:00:00.000Z · FC Minsk 1-0 Torpedo Zhodino (Premier League)
- 2025-06-14T12:00:00.000Z · FC Minsk 1-5 Torpedo Zhodino (Premier League)
- 2025-03-23T08:30:00.000Z · FC Minsk 0-2 Torpedo Zhodino (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-01-27T09:00:00.000Z · FC Minsk 0-1 Torpedo Zhodino (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · FC Minsk 2-2 Torpedo Zhodino (Premier League)
- 2024-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · FC Minsk 1-2 Torpedo Zhodino (Premier League)
- 2023-11-25T14:00:00.000Z · FC Minsk 0-1 Torpedo Zhodino (Premier League)
- 2023-07-01T13:50:00.000Z · FC Minsk 1-0 Torpedo Zhodino (Premier League)
- 2022-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · FC Minsk 1-1 Torpedo Zhodino (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | Neman | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -16 | 28 |
| 12 | Belshina | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -18 | 24 |
| 13 | Arsenal | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 26 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -16 | 20 |
| 16 | Naftan | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -38 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.