· Analysis updated 08:01 UTC
FC Mk de Kinshasa vs Etoile de Kivu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.54 expected goals for FC Mk de Kinshasa and 0.44 for Etoile de Kivu, a combined total of 0.98. That distribution gives FC Mk de Kinshasa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 30%, with the draw at 47%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 8% for over 2.5 goals and 15% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 38%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 30% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw
47.1% probability
Expected goals
0.54 – 0.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Mk de Kinshasa home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 30% / 47% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.54 goals for FC Mk de Kinshasa and 0.44 for Etoile de Kivu, a combined 0.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 8% and both teams to score at 15%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 38%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
53%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–037.6%
- 1–020.2%
- 0–116.6%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–05.4%
Recent form
FC Mk de Kinshasa
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Céleste · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maniema Union · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Etoile de Kivu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Anges Verts · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 1-0 (W)
Etoile de Kivu
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Eloi Lupopo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 1 | Anges Verts | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Tanganyika | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Étoile du Congo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Simba | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | JSK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Blessing | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | FC Mk de Kinshasa | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 | Don Bosco | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 | Céleste | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Sanga Balende | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Dauphins Noirs | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | AS New Soger | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | Etoile de Kivu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | CS Manika | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | FC Renaissance | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Malole | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Saint-Luc | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | New Jack | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | TP Mazembe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Vita Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Lubumbashi Sport | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Maniema Union | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Butras | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Novakin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 15% and over 2.5 goals at 8%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.