· Analysis updated 11:52 UTC
FC Mk de Kinshasa vs FC Renaissance Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.64 expected goals for FC Mk de Kinshasa and 0.53 for FC Renaissance, a combined total of 1.17. That distribution gives FC Mk de Kinshasa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 43%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 11% for over 2.5 goals and 19% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 31%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.9% probability
Expected goals
0.64 – 0.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Mk de Kinshasa home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Renaissance away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 43% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.64 goals for FC Mk de Kinshasa and 0.53 for FC Renaissance, a combined 1.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
58%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–031.1%
- 1–019.9%
- 0–116.4%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–06.4%
Recent form
FC Mk de Kinshasa
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Céleste · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maniema Union · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Etoile de Kivu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Anges Verts · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 1-0 (W)
FC Renaissance
- 2026-04-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Maniema Union · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dauphins Noirs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Renaissance · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Motema Pembe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukavu Dawa · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | Anges Verts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tanganyika | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Étoile du Congo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Don Bosco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | JSK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Malole | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Céleste | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 | Saint Eloi Lupopo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | FC Mk de Kinshasa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sanga Balende | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Dauphins Noirs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | AS New Soger | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | CS Manika | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Etoile de Kivu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | TP Mazembe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | FC Renaissance | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lubumbashi Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | New Jack | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Butras | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Vita Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Blessing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Maniema Union | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Saint-Luc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Novakin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 19% and over 2.5 goals at 11%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.