· Analysis updated 18:07 UTC
FC National Ialoveni vs Victoria Bardar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for FC National Ialoveni and 1.08 for Victoria Bardar, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives FC National Ialoveni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC National Ialoveni home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Victoria Bardar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC National Ialoveni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for FC National Ialoveni and 1.08 for Victoria Bardar, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.6%
Recent form
FC National Ialoveni
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Bardar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Făleşti · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oguzsport · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Stăuceni · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Congaz · 1-2 (L)
Victoria Bardar
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Oguzsport · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC National Ialoveni · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Stăuceni · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Făleşti · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oguzsport · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iskra | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 22 |
| 1 | Oguzsport | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Vulturii Cutezători | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Stăuceni | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | FCM Ungheni | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Făleşti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Zimbru II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 4 | FC National Ialoveni | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Univer Comrat | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 5 | Victoria Bardar | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 6 | Spartanii Selemet | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.