FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 0.95 for Aarhus, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives FC Nordsjaelland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Nordsjaelland win

59.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Nordsjaelland home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Aarhus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

FC Nordsjaelland win59%

Draw22%

Aarhus win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–011.1%
1–110.6%
2–010.4%
2–19.9%
3–06.5%

Recent form

FC Nordsjaelland

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Malmo FF · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viborg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vatanspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Midtjylland · 2-2 (D)

Aarhus

2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonderjyske · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Horsens · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · FC Nordsjaelland 2-0 Aarhus (Superliga)
2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · FC Nordsjaelland 1-1 Aarhus (Superliga)
2026-04-10T17:00:00.000Z · FC Nordsjaelland 1-1 Aarhus (Superliga)
2025-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · FC Nordsjaelland 0-1 Aarhus (Superliga)
2025-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · FC Nordsjaelland 1-2 Aarhus (Superliga)
2025-05-16T17:00:00.000Z · FC Nordsjaelland 2-0 Aarhus (Superliga)
2025-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · FC Nordsjaelland 0-2 Aarhus (Superliga)
2024-11-22T18:00:00.000Z · FC Nordsjaelland 1-0 Aarhus (Superliga)
2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · FC Nordsjaelland 2-4 Aarhus (Superliga)
2024-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · FC Nordsjaelland 3-1 Aarhus (Superliga)

Superliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Copenhagen	11	8	1	2	14	25
2	FC Midtjylland	11	7	4	0	10	25
3	Viborg	11	6	2	3	8	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	11	5	4	2	4	19
5	Brondby	11	5	1	5	-1	16
6	AC Horsens	11	3	4	4	-1	13
7	Odense	11	3	4	4	-5	13
8	Silkeborg	11	2	5	4	-4	11
9	Randers FC	11	3	2	6	-5	11
10	Aarhus	11	1	6	4	-3	9
11	Sonderjyske	11	2	2	7	-8	8
12	Lyngby	11	1	5	5	-9	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Nordsjaelland win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.