Gazovik Stadium · Referee Kirill Levnikov, Russia · Analysis updated 21:34 UTC
FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for FC Orenburg and 1.50 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives FC Krasnodar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Krasnodar win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Orenburg home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Krasnodar away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
FC Orenburg
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tekstilshchik · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Krasnodar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 2-2 (D)
FC Krasnodar
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T13:15:00.000Z · FC Orenburg 0-0 FC Krasnodar (Premier League)
- 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · FC Orenburg 0-3 FC Krasnodar (Premier League)
- 2025-11-26T15:00:00.000Z · FC Orenburg 0-4 FC Krasnodar (Cup)
- 2025-11-05T13:00:00.000Z · FC Orenburg 1-3 FC Krasnodar (Cup)
- 2025-08-10T12:30:00.000Z · FC Orenburg 0-1 FC Krasnodar (Premier League)
- 2025-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · FC Orenburg 1-2 FC Krasnodar (Premier League)
- 2024-11-03T16:45:00.000Z · FC Orenburg 0-4 FC Krasnodar (Premier League)
- 2023-12-03T13:30:00.000Z · FC Orenburg 1-2 Krasnodar (Premier League)
- 2023-08-12T14:30:00.000Z · FC Orenburg 0-2 Krasnodar (Premier League)
- 2022-11-13T11:00:00.000Z · FC Orenburg 5-1 Krasnodar (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Krasnodar win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.