· Analysis updated 20:07 UTC
FC Orenburg vs Tekstilshchik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC Orenburg and 0.95 for Tekstilshchik, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives FC Orenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Orenburg win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Orenburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tekstilshchik away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Orenburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for FC Orenburg and 0.95 for Tekstilshchik, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.4%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.3%
Recent form
FC Orenburg
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Rubin · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tekstilshchik · 3-2 (W)
Tekstilshchik
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotor Volgograd · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Leningradets · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Moskva · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Veles · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Orenburg win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.