Frans Heesen Stadion · Referee W. Wiersma · Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.50 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives FC OSS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC OSS home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jong Utrecht away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
FC OSS
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Helmond Sport · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Emmen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dordrecht · 3-0 (W)
Jong Utrecht
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs VVV Venlo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong Ajax · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NAC Breda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · FC OSS 2-1 Jong Utrecht (Eerste Divisie)
- 2026-04-06T14:45:00.000Z · FC OSS 3-1 Jong Utrecht (Eerste Divisie)
- 2025-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · FC OSS 0-0 Jong Utrecht (Eerste Divisie)
- 2025-03-03T19:00:00.000Z · FC OSS 1-1 Jong Utrecht (Eerste Divisie)
- 2025-01-05T12:30:00.000Z · FC OSS 1-1 Jong Utrecht (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-11-30T15:30:00.000Z · FC OSS 1-1 Jong Utrecht (Eerste Divisie)
- 2024-07-13T00:00:00.000Z · FC OSS 3-3 Jong Utrecht (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-02-26T19:00:00.000Z · FC OSS 3-0 Jong Utrecht (Eerste Divisie)
- 2023-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · FC OSS 2-0 Jong Utrecht (Eerste Divisie)
- 2023-07-21T12:00:00.000Z · FC OSS 2-0 Jong Utrecht (Friendlies Clubs)
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.