Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes · Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
FC Porto B vs Torreense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for FC Porto B and 1.95 for Torreense, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Torreense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Torreense win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Porto B home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torreense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torreense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 22% / 22% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for FC Porto B and 1.95 for Torreense, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
FC Porto B
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vizela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tondela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Feirense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Farense · 1-3 (L)
Torreense
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vizela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torreense win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.