Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes · Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe · Analysis updated 18:19 UTC
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for FC Porto B and 2.23 for União de Leiria, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives União de Leiria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
União de Leiria win
61.1% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 2.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Porto B home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
União de Leiria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 0–28.3%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–37.2%
Recent form
FC Porto B
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vizela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tondela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Feirense · 1-0 (W)
União de Leiria
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs O Elvas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Amarante · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-15T18:00:00.000Z · FC Porto B 2-2 União de Leiria (Segunda Liga)
- 2025-09-14T14:30:00.000Z · FC Porto B 1-2 União de Leiria (Segunda Liga)
- 2025-02-09T15:30:00.000Z · FC Porto B 0-0 União de Leiria (Segunda Liga)
- 2024-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · FC Porto B 1-1 União de Leiria (Segunda Liga)
- 2024-02-03T11:00:00.000Z · FC Porto B 1-1 União de Leiria (Segunda Liga)
- 2023-08-27T10:00:00.000Z · FC Porto B 2-1 União de Leiria (Segunda Liga)
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP B | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Penafiel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Academica | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Farense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Benfica B | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Chaves | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is União de Leiria win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.