Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra · Referee A. Narciso · Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
FC Porto vs Torreense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC Porto and 1.03 for Torreense, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Porto win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Porto home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torreense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Porto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for FC Porto and 1.03 for Torreense, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
FC Porto
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-2 (L)
Torreense
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vizela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T19:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-0 Torreense (Super Cup)
Super Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Porto win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.