· Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
FC Renaissance vs Maniema Union Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for FC Renaissance and 1.41 for Maniema Union, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Maniema Union the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Renaissance home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maniema Union away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maniema Union to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 27% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for FC Renaissance and 1.41 for Maniema Union, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
FC Renaissance
- 2026-04-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Maniema Union · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dauphins Noirs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Renaissance · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Motema Pembe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukavu Dawa · 3-0 (W)
Maniema Union
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kabuscorp · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Simba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs JSK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Céleste · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vita Club · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | Anges Verts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tanganyika | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Étoile du Congo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Don Bosco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | JSK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Malole | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | FC Mk de Kinshasa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Saint Eloi Lupopo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Céleste | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sanga Balende | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Dauphins Noirs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | AS New Soger | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | CS Manika | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Etoile de Kivu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | TP Mazembe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | New Jack | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Lubumbashi Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Vita Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Butras | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Maniema Union | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Blessing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | FC Renaissance | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Saint-Luc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Novakin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.