Rostov Arena · Referee Danil Naboka, Russia · Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
FC Rostov vs Akron Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for FC Rostov and 0.92 for Akron, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives FC Rostov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Rostov win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Rostov home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Akron away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Rostov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for FC Rostov and 0.92 for Akron, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 4.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.25 | 73.3% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.84 | 50.3% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 74.3% | 75.3% | 1.33 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.82 | 52.4% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 4.65 | 20.7% | 21.2% | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.79 | 53.7% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 79.2% | 78.8% | 1.27 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.08 | 46.5% | 45.9% | 2.18 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.6% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.74 | 25.7% | 24.7% | 4.05 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.86 | 49.7% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.44 | 26.7% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -1.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Rostov
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Krasnodar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moscow · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 3-1 (W)
Akron
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moscow · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 2 | CSKA Moscow | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Zenit | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 6 | Rubin | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Akhmat | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Akron | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
| 16 | Fakel | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Rostov win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.