Rostov Arena · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.36 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Krylia Sovetov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Rostov home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Krylia Sovetov away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Krylia Sovetov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for FC Rostov and 1.36 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
FC Rostov
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Krasnodar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moscow · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 3-1 (W)
Krylia Sovetov
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Krasnodar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Baltika · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Krasnodar | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Baltika | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 9 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | Rubin | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Krylia Sovetov | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Akhmat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Akron | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Fakel | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.