Rostov Arena · Referee E. Kukulyak · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
FC Rostov vs Lokomotiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.41 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Lokomotiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Rostov home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 27% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for FC Rostov and 1.41 for Lokomotiv, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
FC Rostov
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Krasnodar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moscow · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 3-1 (W)
Lokomotiv
- 2026-10-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Orenburg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Krylia Sovetov · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.