FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt vs BFC Preussen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.15 expected goals for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt and 0.55 for BFC Preussen, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win

87.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.15 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BFC Preussen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 9% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.15 goals for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt and 0.55 for BFC Preussen, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win87%

Draw9%

BFC Preussen win4%

Double chance 1X

96%

Double chance 12

91%

Double chance X2

13%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

3–012.9%
2–012.3%
4–010.1%
1–07.8%
3–17.1%

Recent form

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs RSV Eintracht · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)

BFC Preussen

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tasmania Berlin · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg II · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chemnitzer FC	13	9	3	1	22	30
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	8	4	1	23	28
3	Hallescher FC	13	8	4	1	11	28
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	13	8	1	4	11	25
5	BFC Dynamo	13	7	4	2	9	25
6	Altglienicke	13	7	3	3	7	24
7	Greifswalder FC	13	6	4	3	6	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	13	6	3	4	2	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	5	4	4	-2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	4	5	4	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	13	5	1	7	-2	16
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	3	4	6	-9	13
13	BFC Preussen	13	2	5	6	-5	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	2	4	7	-13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	2	3	8	-16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	2	2	9	-19	8
18	Luckenwalde	13	2	0	11	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win, at 87.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.