· Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt vs Magdeburg II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.64 expected goals for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt and 1.28 for Magdeburg II, a combined total of 4.92. That distribution gives FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win
80.0% probability
Expected goals
3.64 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Magdeburg II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 11% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.64 goals for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt and 1.28 for Magdeburg II, a combined 4.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.5%
- 4–16.8%
- 2–16.2%
- 3–05.9%
- 4–05.3%
Recent form
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs RSV Eintracht · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)
Magdeburg II
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Altglienicke · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Dynamo · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chemnitzer FC | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 27 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 4 | BFC Dynamo | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 6 | Greifswalder FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 7 | Altglienicke | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Erzgebirge Aue | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 9 | FSV Zwickau | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Magdeburg II | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | BFC Preussen | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Hertha BSC II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 15 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | RSV Eintracht | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 6 |
| 17 | Luckenwalde | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -17 | 6 |
| 18 | Tasmania Berlin | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -25 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win, at 80.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.