Okinawa Athletic Park Stadium · Analysis updated 13:16 UTC
FC Ryukyu vs Ehime FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for FC Ryukyu and 1.68 for Ehime FC, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Ehime FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ehime FC win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Ryukyu home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ehime FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ehime FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for FC Ryukyu and 1.68 for Ehime FC, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–27.8%
- 2–16.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.80 | 51.1% | 51.9% | 1.93 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.4% | 76.0% | 1.32 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.90 | 47.7% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.4% | 1.81 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.25 | 27.9% | 27.8% | 3.60 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.6% | 2.24 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 24.5% | 24.1% | 4.15 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 73.6% | 72.3% | 1.38 | -1.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Ryukyu
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kanazawa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ehime FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Biwako Shiga · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Kamatamare Sanuki · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitakyushu · 3-0 (W)
Ehime FC
- 2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Thespakusatsu Gunma · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tokyo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Kamatamare Sanuki · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Osaka · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | FC Gifu | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Osaka | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 9 | Parceiro Nagano | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Kanazawa | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Biwako Shiga | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Gainare Tottori | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 | Kitakyushu | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 17 | Fukushima United | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -23 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ehime FC win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.