· Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
FC 's-Gravenzande vs Gemert Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC 's-Gravenzande and 1.53 for Gemert, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Gemert the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC 's-Gravenzande home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gemert away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gemert to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 35% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for FC 's-Gravenzande and 1.53 for Gemert, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
FC 's-Gravenzande
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gemert · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs SteDoCo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SteDoCo · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-06-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Groene Ster · 3-4 (L)
- 2025-06-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Groene Ster · 0-1 (L)
Gemert
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Lisse · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Groene Ster · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ijsselmeervogels · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs UDI '19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Poortugaal · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.