Ludwigspark-Stadion · Referee Patrick Schwengers, Germany · Analysis updated 00:48 UTC
FC Saarbrücken vs Rot-Weiß Essen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for FC Saarbrücken and 1.63 for Rot-Weiß Essen, a combined total of 4.56. That distribution gives FC Saarbrücken the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws roughly 36% of the time.
Model pick
FC Saarbrücken to Win
64.1% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.3%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–26.0%
- 3–25.8%
- 4–15.2%
Why the model likes this
Rot-Weiß Essen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Saarbrücken to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 16% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for FC Saarbrücken and 1.63 for Rot-Weiß Essen, a combined 4.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 76%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Recent form
FC Saarbrücken
Rot-Weiß Essen
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Würzburger Kickers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Alemannia Aachen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Preußen Münster | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Saarbrücken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Stuttgart II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Hansa Rostock | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Waldhof Mannheim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | SV Meppen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Fortuna Köln | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Havelse | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | FC Viktoria Köln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 19 | Verl | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | SV Wehen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.