FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC Saarbrücken and 2.00 for Waldhof Mannheim, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Waldhof Mannheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Saarbrücken home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Waldhof Mannheim away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Waldhof Mannheim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 38% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for FC Saarbrücken and 2.00 for Waldhof Mannheim, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Saarbrücken win38%

Draw21%

Waldhof Mannheim win42%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

1–17.7%
1–27.7%
2–17.3%
2–27.3%
1–35.1%

Recent form

FC Saarbrücken

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Nancy · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 2-1 (W)

Waldhof Mannheim

2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger Kickers · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	11	8	1	2	14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	7	2	2	15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	6	3	2	6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	5	2	3	7	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	5	2	4	0	17
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	5	2	4	-1	17
7	Hoffenheim II	10	5	1	4	5	16
8	Hansa Rostock	11	4	4	3	-2	16
9	SV Wehen	11	4	3	4	3	15
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	4	3	4	-2	15
11	SV Meppen	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Stuttgart II	11	4	2	5	-2	14
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	4	1	5	0	13
14	Preußen Münster	10	3	3	4	-3	12
15	Verl	11	3	3	5	-6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	3	3	5	-12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	3	2	6	-8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	2	4	5	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	2	4	4	-3	10
20	Havelse	10	1	3	6	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.