Estadi Comunal · Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
FC Santa Coloma vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.68 expected goals for FC Santa Coloma and 1.33 for Inter Club d'Escaldes, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives FC Santa Coloma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Santa Coloma win
66.1% probability
Expected goals
2.68 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Santa Coloma home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter Club d'Escaldes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–06.6%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–05.8%
Recent form
FC Santa Coloma
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa de Portugal · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Escaldes · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Penya Encarnada · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carroi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Vienna · 2-6 (L)
Inter Club d'Escaldes
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ordino · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodez · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranger's · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Carroi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-08T12:15:00.000Z · FC Santa Coloma 3-2 Inter Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2026-02-01T15:00:00.000Z · FC Santa Coloma 1-1 Inter Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2025-11-26T13:30:00.000Z · FC Santa Coloma 1-3 Inter Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2025-04-05T18:30:00.000Z · FC Santa Coloma 0-1 Inter Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2025-01-26T17:30:00.000Z · FC Santa Coloma 2-2 Inter Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2024-09-29T14:00:00.000Z · FC Santa Coloma 0-2 Inter Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2024-03-02T19:30:00.000Z · FC Santa Coloma 2-1 Inter Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2024-02-25T15:00:00.000Z · FC Santa Coloma 0-1 Inter Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2023-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · FC Santa Coloma 0-2 Inter Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2023-05-28T15:00:00.000Z · FC Santa Coloma 1-2 Inter Club d'Escaldes (Copa Constitució)
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| 4 | Ranger's | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Ordino | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 6 | Esperança d'Andorra | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | Casa de Portugal | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 9 | Carroi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 10 | Sporting Escaldes | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Santa Coloma win, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.