· Analysis updated 04:40 UTC
FC Santiago vs Real Refineros Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for FC Santiago and 0.77 for Real Refineros, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives FC Santiago the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Santiago win
74.0% probability
Expected goals
2.43 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Santiago home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Santiago to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for FC Santiago and 0.77 for Real Refineros, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 49%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.0%
- 1–09.9%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.50 | 37.5% | 38.1% | 2.62 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 9.50 | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.10 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.60 | 25.7% | 26.0% | 3.85 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.03 | 90.0% | 90.1% | 1.11 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.22 | 74.1% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.50 | 16.4% | 16.1% | 6.21 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.10 | 84.3% | 83.9% | 1.19 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | 61.9% | 1.62 | -0.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Santiago
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Apodaca · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs La Tribu de Cd. Juarez · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guerreros · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acatlan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Saltillo · 4-1 (W)
Real Refineros
- 2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Guerreros del Pacifico · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Halcones Negros · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Dragones de Oaxaca · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciervos · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Coatzacoalcos · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Santiago win, at 74.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.