Lipo Park · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
FC Schaffhausen vs Bellinzona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for FC Schaffhausen and 0.70 for Bellinzona, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives FC Schaffhausen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Schaffhausen win
72.6% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Schaffhausen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bellinzona away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.2%
- 1–011.8%
- 3–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
FC Schaffhausen
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Young Boys II · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Bulle · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lugano II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brühl · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs YF Juventus · 0-3 (L)
Bellinzona
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs YF Juventus · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zürich II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Breitenrain · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grand-Saconnex · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kreuzlingen · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · FC Schaffhausen 1-0 Bellinzona (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2025-05-23T18:15:00.000Z · FC Schaffhausen 1-3 Bellinzona (Challenge League)
- 2025-01-25T17:00:00.000Z · FC Schaffhausen 0-3 Bellinzona (Challenge League)
- 2024-11-01T18:30:00.000Z · FC Schaffhausen 2-1 Bellinzona (Challenge League)
- 2024-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · FC Schaffhausen 1-2 Bellinzona (Challenge League)
- 2024-04-23T17:30:00.000Z · FC Schaffhausen 1-1 Bellinzona (Challenge League)
- 2024-03-15T18:30:00.000Z · FC Schaffhausen 2-1 Bellinzona (Challenge League)
- 2023-10-22T12:15:00.000Z · FC Schaffhausen 0-0 Bellinzona (Challenge League)
- 2023-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · FC Schaffhausen 0-0 Bellinzona (Challenge League)
- 2023-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · FC Schaffhausen 1-3 Bellinzona (Schweizer Cup)
1. Liga Promotion table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Schaffhausen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 3 | Cham | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Bulle | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 5 | Paradiso | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 6 | YF Juventus | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Grand-Saconnex | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Basel II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Amical Saint-Prex | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 16 |
| 10 | Kreuzlingen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Zürich II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Breitenrain | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | Brühl | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Young Boys II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 15 | Lugano II | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 | Bavois | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Luzern II | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Schaffhausen win, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.