FC Schaffhausen vs Lugano II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.29 expected goals for FC Schaffhausen and 1.17 for Lugano II, a combined total of 4.46. That distribution gives FC Schaffhausen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Schaffhausen win

77.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.29 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Schaffhausen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lugano II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Schaffhausen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 12% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.29 goals for FC Schaffhausen and 1.17 for Lugano II, a combined 4.46 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Schaffhausen win78%

Draw12%

Lugano II win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

22%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

3–18.0%
2–17.3%
3–06.9%
4–16.6%
2–06.2%

Recent form

FC Schaffhausen

2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Young Boys II · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Bulle · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lugano II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brühl · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs YF Juventus · 0-3 (L)

Lugano II

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kreuzlingen · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Paradiso · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cham · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schaffhausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Basel II · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga Promotion table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Biel-Bienne	11	8	2	1	13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	16	25
3	Cham	11	7	1	3	5	22
4	Bulle	11	6	3	2	8	21
5	Paradiso	11	6	2	3	11	20
6	YF Juventus	11	6	1	4	2	19
7	Grand-Saconnex	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	Basel II	11	5	1	5	0	16
9	Amical Saint-Prex	11	5	1	5	-6	16
10	Kreuzlingen	11	4	3	4	1	15
11	Zürich II	11	4	3	4	0	15
12	Breitenrain	11	4	3	4	-2	15
13	Brühl	11	4	2	5	-2	14
14	Young Boys II	11	3	2	6	-9	11
15	Lugano II	11	3	0	8	-8	9
16	Bavois	11	2	2	7	-4	8
17	Luzern II	11	2	1	8	-12	7
18	Bellinzona	11	1	2	8	-17	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Schaffhausen win, at 77.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.