Veltins Arena · Referee Robert Schröder, Germany · Analysis updated 20:37 UTC
FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 3.08 for Bayern München, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Bayern München the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayern München win
79.9% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 3.08
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Schalke 04 home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bayern München away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–38.9%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–38.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–46.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 54.2% | 57.1% | 1.75 | +2.9 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 43.8% | 2.28 | +1.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 5.00 | 19.0% | 20.0% | 5.00 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 12.50 | 7.5% | 7.9% | 12.66 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.95 | 24.0% | 24.3% | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 7.70 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 8.26 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.03 | 92.2% | 92.0% | 1.09 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.25 | 76.0% | 75.7% | 1.32 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.16 | 80.4% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.07 | 88.8% | 87.8% | 1.14 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 56.2% | 1.78 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.05 | 45.8% | 42.9% | 2.33 | -2.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Schalke 04
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Lustenau · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 0-0 (D)
Bayern München
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schalke 04 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern München (Bundesliga)
- 2023-05-13T13:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-6 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 2022-11-12T17:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-2 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 2021-01-24T14:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-4 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 2020-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-8 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 2020-03-03T19:45:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-1 Bayern Munich (DFB Pokal)
- 2020-01-25T17:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-5 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 2019-08-24T16:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-3 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 2019-02-09T17:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 1-3 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 2018-09-22T16:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-2 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayern München win, at 79.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.