FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.48 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives RB Leipzig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Schalke 04 home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
RB Leipzig away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

FC Schalke 04 win33%

Draw25%

RB Leipzig win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–19.4%
1–28.9%
1–08.2%
2–17.7%

Recent form

FC Schalke 04

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Lustenau · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 0-0 (D)

RB Leipzig

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2023-05-27T13:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 2-4 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2023-01-24T17:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 1-6 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2021-02-06T14:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-3 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2020-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-4 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2020-02-22T17:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-5 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2019-09-28T13:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 3-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2019-03-16T14:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-1 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2018-10-28T14:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 0-0 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2018-01-13T17:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 1-3 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)
2017-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · FC Schalke 04 2-0 RB Leipzig (Bundesliga)

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	5	4	1	0	10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	4	1	0	7	13
3	Bayern München	5	3	2	0	12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	2	2	1	5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	2	1	2	3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	2	1	2	0	7
10	1. FC Köln	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	-10	6
13	FC Schalke 04	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	1	2	2	-7	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	-12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.