FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 2.33 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives SV Elversberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SV Elversberg win

49.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 2.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Schalke 04 home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SV Elversberg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SV Elversberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 31% / 20% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for FC Schalke 04 and 2.33 for SV Elversberg, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Schalke 04 win31%

Draw20%

SV Elversberg win50%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

1–27.8%
2–27.1%
1–16.7%
2–16.1%
1–36.0%

Recent form

FC Schalke 04

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Lustenau · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 0-0 (D)

SV Elversberg

2026-09-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schalke 04 · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	5	4	1	0	10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	4	1	0	7	13
3	Bayern München	5	3	2	0	12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	2	2	1	5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	2	1	2	3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	2	1	2	0	7
10	1. FC Köln	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	-10	6
13	FC Schalke 04	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	1	2	2	-7	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	-12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SV Elversberg win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.