FC Schweinfurt 05 vs Illertissen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for FC Schweinfurt 05 and 1.93 for Illertissen, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Illertissen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Illertissen win

51.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Schweinfurt 05 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Illertissen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Illertissen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 26% / 22% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for FC Schweinfurt 05 and 1.93 for Illertissen, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Schweinfurt 05 win26%

Draw22%

Illertissen win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–19.9%
1–29.6%
0–17.6%
0–27.3%
2–16.5%

Recent form

FC Schweinfurt 05

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchbach · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Illertissen · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eichstätt · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nürnberg II · 2-5 (L)

Illertissen

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Augsburg II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Buchbach · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Aubstadt · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV 1860 München · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilzing · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Bayern table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Memmingen	16	10	3	3	10	33
2	Buchbach	16	8	5	3	7	29
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	15	7	7	1	10	28
4	TSV 1860 München	15	7	6	2	12	27
5	Augsburg II	15	7	3	5	-1	24
6	Illertissen	15	6	5	4	8	23
7	Bayreuth	15	7	1	7	8	22
8	Vilzing	14	5	6	3	1	21
9	Eichstätt	16	6	3	7	-6	21
10	Wacker Burghausen	15	5	5	5	7	20
11	Nürnberg II	14	6	2	6	6	20
12	Bayern München II	13	5	4	4	4	19
13	Eltersdorf	15	4	6	5	-1	18
14	Schwaben Augsburg	15	5	3	7	-9	18
15	FC Schweinfurt 05	15	4	5	6	-10	17
16	Greuther Fürth II	15	3	4	8	-6	13
17	Ansbach	15	3	3	9	-17	12
18	Aubstadt	15	2	5	8	-7	11
19	Landsberg	15	1	6	8	-16	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Illertissen win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.