Seoul World Cup Stadium · Referee Jong-Hyeok Kim, South Korea · Analysis updated 22:58 UTC
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.87 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives FC Seoul the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Seoul win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Seoul home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jeju United FC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 51.7% vs market 46.4%, edge +5.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.4% | 51.7% | 1.93 | +5.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.55 | 58.6% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.30 | 40.9% | 41.1% | 2.43 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 81.9% | 81.9% | 1.22 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.2% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.2% | 77.0% | 1.30 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.3% | 23.0% | 4.35 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.6% | 48.3% | 2.07 | -5.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Seoul
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Gangwon FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-14T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Victory · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pohang Steelers · 1-2 (L)
Jeju United FC
- 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Seoul · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gwangju FC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T05:00:00.000Z · FC Seoul 1-2 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
- 2026-03-15T05:00:00.000Z · FC Seoul 2-1 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
- 2025-07-23T10:30:00.000Z · FC Seoul 2-3 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
- 2025-05-31T10:00:00.000Z · FC Seoul 1-3 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
- 2025-02-15T06:30:00.000Z · FC Seoul 0-2 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
- 2024-08-16T10:30:00.000Z · FC Seoul 1-0 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
- 2024-07-06T10:00:00.000Z · FC Seoul 2-3 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
- 2024-03-16T07:30:00.000Z · FC Seoul 2-0 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
- 2023-11-11T07:30:00.000Z · FC Seoul 0-0 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
- 2023-09-23T07:30:00.000Z · FC Seoul 3-1 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 32 | 67 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 49 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Incheon United | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 46 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 33 | 5 | 19 | 9 | -8 | 34 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 33 | 3 | 12 | 18 | -39 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Seoul win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.