· Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
FC Serpa vs Portel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC Serpa and 0.90 for Portel, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives FC Serpa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Serpa win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Serpa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portel away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Serpa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for FC Serpa and 0.90 for Portel, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.5%
- 2–010.9%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
FC Serpa
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Real · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lagoa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs 1º Dezembro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs O Grandolense · 2-0 (W)
Portel
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olhanense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aljustrelense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventude Évora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Messejanense · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcochetense · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Real | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Juventude Évora | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Lajense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Santa Clara B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Portel | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 13 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Serpa win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.