FC Sochi vs Chelyabinsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for FC Sochi and 0.98 for Chelyabinsk, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives FC Sochi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Sochi win

58.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Sochi home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelyabinsk away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Sochi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for FC Sochi and 0.98 for Chelyabinsk, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Sochi win59%

Draw22%

Chelyabinsk win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–010.8%
1–110.6%
2–010.2%
2–19.9%
3–06.4%

Recent form

FC Sochi

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC UFA · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ska-khabarovsk · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Veles · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nizhny Novgorod · 0-1 (L)

Chelyabinsk

2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Enisey · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC UFA · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KAMAZ · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Barnaul · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	13	1	1	29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	10	2	3	11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	8	4	3	15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	8	3	3	7	27
5	Veles	15	8	3	4	2	27
6	Ural	14	7	4	3	12	25
7	FC UFA	15	5	6	4	3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	4	8	2	4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	5	4	6	5	19
10	Arsenal Tula	15	5	4	6	-10	19
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	5	3	7	-2	18
12	Chelyabinsk	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Enisey	15	3	5	7	-14	14
14	KAMAZ	15	3	4	8	-8	13
15	Leningradets	14	3	4	7	-14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	4	0	10	-11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	2	4	9	-10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	2	4	9	-14	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Sochi win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.