Kybunpark · Analysis updated 06:31 UTC
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 2.65 for FC Lugano, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives FC Lugano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Lugano win
69.3% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC ST. Gallen home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Lugano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–36.9%
- 1–16.8%
Recent form
FC ST. Gallen
- 2026-10-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brühl · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Basel 1893 · 3-1 (W)
FC Lugano
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pully Football · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 1-4 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2026-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 2-1 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2026-03-17T18:00:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 1-1 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2025-11-26T18:00:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 3-1 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2025-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 1-0 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2025-04-13T12:15:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 1-1 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2025-02-05T19:30:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 2-1 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2024-09-01T14:30:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 1-1 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2024-05-04T18:30:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 1-0 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2024-03-09T19:30:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 2-3 FC Lugano (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 31 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Zurich | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 5 | Servette FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | FC ST. Gallen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 9 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Lugano win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.