Kybunpark · Referee Alessandro Dudic, Switzerland · Analysis updated 06:53 UTC
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Luzern Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.00 for FC Luzern, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives FC ST. Gallen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC ST. Gallen win
73.9% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC ST. Gallen home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Luzern away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC ST. Gallen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.00 for FC Luzern, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
FC ST. Gallen
- 2026-10-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brühl · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Basel 1893 · 3-1 (W)
FC Luzern
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Winterthur · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshoppers · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 31 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Zurich | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 5 | Servette FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | FC ST. Gallen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 9 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC ST. Gallen win, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.